
Please refer to important disclosures at the end of this report
1
Market share gainer, while maintaining best-in-class margins: CARE is the second
largest rating agency in India, with large PSU banks such as IDBI, Canara and
SBI, being its prominent shareholders (pre-offer combined shareholding of
58.2%). CARE has garnered market share from its globally affiliated peers in the
past few years and even while doing so, it has maintained its superior margins.
Overall the operating margins for CARE have been significantly higher, as unlike
its other two listed peers, its sole business segment currently is rating services,
which has enjoyed higher margins than research or any other division. Even
comparing the ratings business, CARE has witnessed impressive EBIT margins
(71% in FY2012) which are substantially higher than that of its peers (ICRA’s 48%
in FY2012, and CRISIL’s 40% in CY2011), which as per the management, is
primarily due to a) lower employee costs owing to its low-cost centralized back
office at Ahmedabad (staff costs as a percentage to revenues are almost half vs.
peers) and b) relatively lower SME/MSE ratings business (which involves lower
margins on account of its lower revenue per customer).
Rating business to primarily drive top-line growth for next few years: Rating
business will remain company’s sole business segment at least in the next few years.
Considering credit growth estimates of 15-17% over the next few years and efforts for
growing our nascent debt market, we expect CARE to register at least similar kind of
growth in its volume of debt rated. However, considering the fact that its revenue
stream has stabilized now, and intention to increase presence in SME/MSE ratings, we
expect growth in its revenue to be approx. 200-300bp lower than the growth in its
volume. Migration to IRB approach, in our view will affect the most to the rating
agency which has major part of its business coming from SME/MSE ratings (as
smaller enterprises normally take loan from a single bank as against larger ones
which usually avail loan from consortium of banks, all of whom might not be
approved for IRB). Having said that, a relatively smaller SME/MSE rating business for
CARE (entered only in FY2011) and ample time to develop other alternative revenue
streams (as impact of IRB on business will not be before FY2016), gives us adequate
comfort to believe that the impact would be manageable for the company.
Outlook and valuation: The stock is valued at 17.9x at upper band on TTM
earnings (taking 2HFY2012 earnings to be 60% of entire FY2012), which is at a
~18% discount to ICRA and ~45% discount to CRISIL. Even on a TTM EV/EBITDA
basis, it is valued at ~39% discount to CRISIL and ~33% to ICRA. However, on a
TTM EV/Sales basis, it is valued at ~27% premium to CRISIL and ~63% premium to
ICRA, which is due to its high margins (likely to have a downward bias from here
on). The company has reported cash and current investments worth `91/share as of
1HFY2013. Overall, considering the high intellectual capital/knowledge oriented
and cash generating nature of the business, combined with reasonable 12-15%
revenue growth expectation, we believe the IPO is reasonably priced at the upper
band. Hence, we recommend subscribe to the issue.
Key financials
Y/E March (` cr) FY2009 FY2010 FY2011
FY2012
1HFY13
Net Sales 94 136 166
189
90
% chg 81.4 44.6 22.2
13.5
-
Net Profit 52 86 88
116
50
% chg 97.5 63.5 2.6
31.6
-
Basic EPS 18.4 30.0 30.8
40.5
17.5
P/E (x) Lower End 38.1 23.3 22.7
17.3
16.0
P/E (x) Upper End 40.9 25.0 24.3
18.5
17.1
EBIT Margins 76.5 78.1 74.2
70.6
64.1
RoE (%) 48.4 49.4 34.6
34.5
34.1
Source: Company, Angel Research, Note: P/E, P/BV and ROE, for 1HFY13 calculated on an
annualized basis, assuming 1H:2H mix of 40:60.
SUBSCRIBE
Issue Open: December 7, 2012
Issue Close: December 11, 2012
Issue Details
Face Value: `10
Present Eq. Paid-up Capital: `28.6cr
Offer Size: 0.72cr Shares (offer for sale)
Post Eq. Paid-up Capital: `28.6cr
Issue size (amount):* `504-540cr
Price Band: `700-750
Post-issue implied mkt. cap*: `1,999cr-
2,141cr
Promoters holding Pre-Issue: 0.0%
Promoters holding Post-Issue: 0.0%
Note:*
t the lower and u
per price band,
respectively
Book Building
QIBs Up to 50%
Non-Institutional At least 15%
Retail At least 35%
Post Issue Shareholding Pattern
Promoters Group 0.0
MF/Banks/Indian
FIs/FIIs/Public & Others
100.0
Vaibhav Agrawal
022 – 39357800 Ext: 6808
Sourabh Taparia
022 – 39357800 Ext: 6872
Credit Analysis and Research (CARE)
Quality at a reasonable price
IPO Note
Rating Agencies
December 6, 2012